Stratosphere’s Early Warm-Up Could Jumble Winter’s Plans
• Early stratospheric warming over the Arctic may weaken the polar vortex.
• Colder, snowier conditions are possible in the U.S. and Canada due to a disrupted polar vortex.
• Europe faces uncertain winter conditions, but a negative Arctic Oscillation suggests potential pattern shifts.
Early stratospheric warm-up may disrupt winter patterns
The stratosphere is showing signs of an early warm-up, potentially disrupting the typical winter weather patterns across North America and Europe. Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate that a significant stratospheric warming event could occur over the Arctic in late November 2025. This phenomenon involves a rapid increase in temperature in the stratosphere, which can have cascading effects down to the troposphere, where we experience our day-to-day weather.
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