An El Niño watch has been issued, with forecasters indicating a growing likelihood of a shift from La Niña to El Niño by late summer 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 50–60% chance of El Niño developing, and experts suggest the possibility of a moderate to strong event by the fall. There is also a 15% chance it could intensify into a rare “super El Niño,” characterized by Pacific Ocean temperatures reaching 2°C above average—a phenomenon observed only twice in the past 30 years (1997–98 and 2015–16).