El Niño Strengthens: Wet Winter Ahead for San Diego
El Niño Strengthens: Wet Winter Ahead for San Diego
US · Published Sep 29, 2026
• The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Advisory, indicating a strengthening El Niño event with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong occurrence during autumn and winter 2026-
• This climate pattern is expected to shift the winter storm track, bringing above-normal precipitation to Southern California, including San Diego County. The seasonal outlook predicts frequent atmospheric river events and a higher probability of heavy rainfall from December through April. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, alters atmospheric circulation, steering storms into Southern California that would typically pass further north. This could result in a wetter-than-usual winter season for the region. (Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, published September 29, 2026)

Impact & Risks

San Diego County residents should prepare for a wetter-than-average winter, with frequent atmospheric river events expected to bring heavy rainfall. These concentrated corridors of water vapor can overwhelm drainage systems, leading to localized flooding, water damage to homes, and potential mold issues. Property owners in flood-prone areas should be particularly vigilant, as the increased precipitation could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The risk of water intrusion into buildings is heightened, especially for structures with inadequate drainage systems or poor yard grading. (Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, FEMA FloodSmart, City of San Diego)

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