Super El Niño Forecast Strengthens, Potentially Among Strongest on Record
• A developing El Niño climate pattern is now forecast to become significantly stronger than previously anticipated, with NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projecting it could rank among the most intense events on record. El Niño conditions, already established in the tropical Pacific, are expected to strengthen rapidly through late 2026 and into
• Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are predicted to exceed 2°C (3.6°F) in key monitoring regions, a threshold historically associated with 'super' El Niño events. These conditions are expected to reshape weather patterns across the United States, particularly during the fall and winter months, with increased rainfall, warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern U.S., and heightened risks of volatile weather patterns.
Impact & Risks
The strengthening El Niño is likely to bring significant impacts to the United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are expected along the East and West coasts, with increased storm activity across the southern U.S. Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to elevated flooding risks, particularly in California, and greater chances of winter storms along the East Coast. Warmer-than-normal conditions may also affect portions of the northern U.S. Additionally, Atlantic hurricane activity could be suppressed due to increased upper-level winds, while the eastern Pacific may see heightened storm activity.
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